Cheating and social tunnelling

Inventions succeed or fail in the market depending on how many people want them, and are prepared to pay the price. Reasons for wanting them vary enormously, but one of the guarantees of success is if the idea allows us to do stuff we always wanted to, but couldn't. And one of the biggest and most common reasons why we can't do something is that it is not socially acceptable.

So, if we can avoid society knowing what we are up to, and avoid otherwise negative impacts on our social status and reputation, or if we can directly bypass an otherwise strong social barrier, then an invention that taps into a basic desire can be successful. There are numerous inventions that fall into this list. VHS and SMS are good examples from the last decades. In the 80s, VHS allowed people to watch porn in private instead of being seen at a cinema. In the 90s, the web allowed them to avoid even the embarassment of buying a video or magazine. But it isn't just porn that encourages us to bypass social norms. Most SMS messages are connected in some way with flirting. Much of the attractiveness in SMS is that by avoiding face to face contact with the target, fears of rejection are lowered, and so people will flirt with more people, and do so with less inhibition. Even the text phrase LOL is ambiguous, meaning both 'lots of love' and 'laughs out loud', so can be safely used in texts to test the water before someone is sure that their feelings are reciprocated.

All of this amounts to a sort of cyberspace 'social tunnelling'. We use these tools to get to a goal without directly confronting a social barrier. We tunnel through it. In more recent years, sites like 2nd Life, dating sites, and many others, have capitalised well on the value of such tunnelling. But while these sites are used in many cases to innocently bypass distance or fears of rejection, the more dangerous side is that they are also often quite deliberately used to bypass other social norms. If I make an advance on another man's wife in front of him, I might expect him to become hostile. But if I send secret texts to his partner, or interact with her in internet chat rooms, he may remain totally unaware of the illicit relationship. The desire of people to play with other people's partners has always been part of human society, but it is only these recent inventions that have enabled easy access to social tunnels.

But the technology hasn't stopped developing, and new kinds of tunnels will appear from time to time, some of which will be even more compelling. I often joke that using the active contact lens displays that may be commonplace in a decade or so, I could be in bed playing with my wife but using computer overlays (aka augmented reality) actually see the next door neighbour's wife, or some supermodel. Thankfully my wife knows I am only joking, but the capability will nevertheless be real. Using active skin to record and replay sensations, it will even be possible to time-shift illicit play.

Such technological capability will have some positive uses of course,  but it will still represent a strong threat to social bonds. People will be less able to trust each other if it is easier and more fun to cheat. But will this lead to social collapse? Of course not.

Actually, I suspect that the real problem is a short to mid term one. When everyone is well aware of the potential for cheating, then we will adapt and learn to live with it. And of course, new tools are constantly being developed to enable partners to check on each other. As new tunnels are built, other older ones collapse. The real problems occur where one party uses their superior techno-literacy to outwit and cheat on the other, and before surveillance tools become widespread. Ultimately, the same solid foundations of human nature will come to bear again. We are more likely to be open and honest when we know we can be caught. Sad, but true.

middle class poverty and the social web

It is very obvious that the lower income end of the middle class is struggling, and even the middle income ones too. Under our current government, a great deal of income redistribution has taken place towards those on low incomes or on welfare, but this has come mainly from those on middle incomes. The result is that the middle classes are often cited as the new poor, having only marginally greater spending power than those they are being taxed to help. As prices have increased, especially for energy in all its forms, along with greatly increased taxes, this large group has much less spare cash, and is now reducing expenditure on optional items. And as spare cash is eroded, every extra price increase has a proportionately larger effect.

Media articles on middle class belt-tightening have been abundant recently. Today, the Times features a graph showing a steep increase in sales of value products, with sales of premium products falling sharply.

But shopping changes are not the only ones. The web is really starting to pick up now as a platform for social entrepreneurs. I was very impressed last year when I discovered freecycle, which was a great way of getting rid of surplus stuff when we merged two households. Many of the people on the receiving end were short of cash, but many weren't. I found that interesting, but it is fully in line with the Time's other article on the subject, which pointed to a growing area of the middle class that is socially confident enough to penny pinch in one area to liberate cash for another, to turn up in a newish Mercedes to collect some free toys. And another that really doesn't see this as penny pinching at all, it just doesn't feel any social need to pay more. Price status has evaporated as a key issue for them. And as it is the middle classes who create such sites, and will create the future ones, pressuring them via financial stress will accelerate social use of the web.

So, some interesting weak signals are coming through here. Firstly, designer stuff is no longer a good indicator of social status. Even people who can afford to pay more are very happy to shop around more, to use discount vouchers, or shop in places that previously were frequented only by those on low incomes. And they do so without losing their social confidence. This applies much more to the middle and upper parts of the middle class than to the lower middle class. If designer labels are being reassigned further down the social hierarchy to wannabes rather than achievers, that will be a very interesting trend indeed.

Secondly, a refocus on value rather than image will destroy a great deal of what was a very strong trend indeed, the Dream Society, as Rolf Jensen called it in his excellent book. Image is important, and accounts for a great deal of the purchase price - up to now. That may be ending, or at least taking a long pause while the recession plays out. Companies will focus much more on product offerings that give high functionality and value, rather than trying to go for image.

Thirdly, this is all happening against a background of hightened environmental awareness. Indeed, this is the cause of at least some of the price rises. As value becomes more important, and frills are stripped, there is often an environmental benefit too. Freecycle was mainly intended to tackle landfill problems. The new frugality is also environmentally friendly, reducing waste.

Fourthly, community is likely to benefit. People are more reliant on each other. Freecycle and its ilk encourage social mixing, awareness of others, and various other benefits. Expect many other social enterprise groups to spring up on the net that will use cost savings as a booster to otherwise modest business plans or finance other community benefits.

Fifthly, as social use of the web accelerates, political activism will grow too. The middle classes are good at articulating their concerns, and can well understand basic IT. The extra pressures on them will bring forth many activists who would previously have sat at home watching TV. We should expect political debate to grow, and actions to be taken. Political casualties will litter the corridors of westminster and local council chambers. Brown is expected to be evicted any time now, but there will be many other targets in the revolution.

Finally, well, mainly because I am suffering post-lunch dip now, we will see a refocus on quality of life issues around relationships. Hard times can bind people together, providing a common enemy.

So all in all, the middle classes might have less cash, and plenty to whine about, but there will be some nice long term benefits as a result - a less wasteful world, more efficiently using resources, where companies focus on substance rather than spin, where basic human values take over from acquisition, and the care economy takes another big step forwards.