Monday, November 23, 2009

If climate scientists are lying, how can the rest of us know the truth?

Science is a proven mechanism for gathering and accumulating knowledge about how the universe works. Some clever bunny comes up with a theory and someone carefully tests it, doing real life experiments to get some real data that is evidence for or against it. They publish that data, along with details of the experiment (or their computer models), so that other scientists can check it and try to replicate the experimental data, to make sure there isn't just some error in the experimental process or the analysis. If verified data doesn't fully fit the initial theory, the theory is modified, and the process starts over. Over time, theories are well tested and either verified or disproved, and the whole field of scientific knowledge progresses, with new knowledge gradually added to what we already knew. This process has worked well for hundreds of years, and is the basis for almost all of our technological progress. Science is just verified knowledge.

Sadly, climate science has been perverted by politics and emotion as well as grant competition and some appears to have scant regard for the scientific process. There is fierce argument between those who say our climate will change dramatically because of human activity and those who say it won't, and further argument about the potential mechanisms for dealing with any change. People on both sides seem fond of cherry picking or distorting data to support their theory and discarding, ignoring or disguising data that doesn't. There is also evidence that some scientists are not sharing their data or methods as they should, or publishing their computer models.

There must be a great deal of excellent science out there, but if it is mixed up with bad science, how are those of us outside to know the difference? People need to be able to trust that the basic science is correct, and the consequent policies justified. If they can't, if some scientists have been caught distorting or hiding the truth for their own ends, then getting public support for actions will be much more difficult. If we are indeed facing the enormous consequences suggested by some in the field, then we need to act accordingly. If we're not, then we need to know that too before we waste many billions that could have been spent better elsewhere.For the benefit of the environment, bad  or corrupt scientists need to be exposed and ejected from the climate science field before they can do any more harm. Any data that they had should be inspected very carefully by other more reputable scientists and any analysis that has used any falsified data or conclusions needs to be redone.

People who deliberately distort data to make climate change look worse than the data really suggests may think they are helping to protect the environment, but are actually among the biggest dangers the environment faces. They are getting in the way of the proper science that we need to understand what is really happening and how to deal with it, and undermining support for any actions that are needed.

The need for scientific integrity obviously applies to both sides of the argument. We need to know the truth so that we can take the right actions. That means openly sharing details of models and experiments and all of the gathered data, whether it supports a particular theory or not, so that other scientists can check it all and build on it. Never before has it been so important that the scientific process is upheld. Our lives depend on it, and our environment is too important to be sacrificed to further the ego or ideology of any group.

Labels: ,

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home